Sorry for the light blogging. I've been traveling almost constantly, with little Internet access and not much more time to keep up with the news. I'm now holed up in L.A., working on a couple of writing projects. It's wonderful to work in the sunshine--especially when you know it will be equally beautiful tomorrow.
Martin Wolk, MSNBC.com's econ correspondent, reports some interesting job news from the grassroots:
According to a monthly survey by the National Federation of Independent Business, member firms expanded their payrolls in each of the final three months of last year on average. That was the first time in three years the group's payroll figure grew for three straight months.
And an index of small business hiring plans rose to its highest level in 39 months, said William Dunkelberg, chief economist for the NFIB, which represents 600,000 businesses, the vast majority of which have fewer than 40 employees.
"We had a huge surge in the percent of firms planning to increase hiring," Dunkelberg said. "I think we've beaten everything we can out of the existing labor force."
The whole piece is worth reading.
The Massachusetts Supreme Court has ruled that only full marriage rights for single-sex couples, not Vermont-style civil unions, satisfy the state constitution's demand for legal equality. With a Massachusetts senator the Democratic frontrunner, and Bush desperate to avoid the issue, this could get nasty.
The AP story linked above ends with some interesting statistics:
Massachusetts has one of the highest concentrations of gay households in the country with at 1.3 percent of the total number of coupled households, according to the 2000 census. In California, 1.4 percent of the coupled households are occupied by same-sex partners. Vermont and New York also registered at 1.3 percent, while in Washington, D.C., the rate is 5.1 percent.
That helps explain why DC conservatives, including the president, tend to squirm when their base demands condemnation of gay marriage and gays in general: If you work in Washington, you inevitably have gay friends, many of whom are de facto married.
Lots of good stuff on Marginal Revolution.
Reader Todd Fletcher agrees with my observation that InstaPundit has been coy about offshore contracting in the IT industry (a.k.a. "outsourcing," which is a rather confusing use of that term):
I've thought the same thing after his every post - "what exactly is his position on this?".
BTW, I work in the IT industry as a web developer, and I'm not worried about outshoring. The companies I've worked for are far too disorganized to send development projects overseas. Communication is the number one problem in software development, and I don't see how that's going to be improved by outshoring.
And reader James M. Woolley writes, in a message titled "Are you completely nuts as well as ignorant":
The pathetic rants and raves on your web site are simply unbelievable - especially that silly remark about that simpleton piece in Wired Magazine - the lowbrow's rag!
There are only a finite number of jobs in the US economy - once a critical mass number have been offshored we enter the cascading unemployment phase - when those jobs dependent on the offshored jobs and industries likewise disappear.
I strongly suspect you never had - or passed - linear algebra or multivariable calculus.
No matter.
Simple arithmetic, coupled with an adequate mind, should be enough to comprehend the present trends. It is no coincidence it appears quite similar to 1929, as around 2005 the fewmets will really hit the fan!!!!!!
You, my dear, are simply another example of the "woman & minorities" program run amok.
He's right about the math. I took just a year of calculus. But you don't need multivariable calculus to know that the number of jobs isn't fixed, now or 10 or 50 or 100 years ago. Trade and specialization create new value, and new jobs, all the time. Here's a good explanation of the mathematics of economic growth from Paul Romer, who did take lots and lots of math. (Unlike Paul, however, I wouldn't point to the Japanese construction business as a model.) Ron Bailey interviewed Paul for Reason here.
I'm selling an InFocus LP350 digital projector on eBay. It's in great condition, but I haven't needed it as much as I thought I would.
I'm working on some long-term projects and not in the right frame of mind for blogging. But here are some assorted opinions on the top issues of the day:
[Update: Steve tells me I've been gone so long that I've forgotten how to blog and that I should have made these separate items. So I did.]
Steve and I watched the half-time show and didn't notice the big flash. We did notice that the show wasn't Up With People. I think it's weird that this shot of of skin (and pasty) is literally a federal case.
Greenvillians were impressed that the debate brought Tom Brokaw to town; forget the candidates, he's the real celebrity, both from television and from The Greatest Generation. Al Sharpton was an unexpected hit, though that won't translate into new votes. John Kerry made many friends. Even his height is an advantage to Democrats looking to beat Bush.
Bush lied. Not, in my view, about weapons of mass destruction--that was an error, not a lie--but certainly about the costs of that Medicare drug benefit. Everyone with a brain, including the wavering Republicans who were supposedly persuaded by the administration's bogus projections, knows that new entitlement projections are always too low. Now we'll get the second act: Demands for price controls. That, too, was inevitable. What's amazing is how little time this all took.